πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¬ Uganda Rainfall Outlook

District-level Rainfall Forecasts (Nov 2025 - Dec 2026)

About This Project

The Challenge: Uganda's economy and food security rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. However, climate variability creates uncertainty for farmers, leading to risks like crop failure from unexpected droughts or loss from flash floods.

Our Solution: We utilized 44 years of historical climate data (ERA5 & CHIRPS) to train a machine learning model (Random Forest). This model predicts monthly rainfall for every single district in Uganda for the next 14 months.

Why Trust It? Our model correctly reproduces Uganda's two rainy seasons (MAM & SON) and accounts for regional differences, performing 36% better than standard historical averages.

National Trend

National Trend

Captures Bimodal Seasonality

Spatial Analysis

Spatial Analysis

Wettest vs. Driest Districts

Regional Trends

Regional Trends

North, East, West and Central Regions' Trends

Accuracy

RMSE: ~43mm (Good)